There could be new alliances based on the result of the polls, said Azizuddin Mohd Sani of Universiti Utara Malaysia.
Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional, Pejuang, Warisan, Pakatan Harapan and MUDA are likely to field candidates in the impending election in the small state of 1 million.
“Warisan may try to portray itself as a national party, and it may work with Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman’s MUDA or MUDA may work with Pejuang to test voters’ responses,” Azizuddin told FMT.
The Melaka state assembly was dissolved on Oct 5 and the Election Commission has said it would meet next Monday to decide on the nomination and polling dates for the new election.
According to the state constitution, an election has to be held within 60 days of the dissolution of the state assembly.
The election is also seen as Umno’s test of whether it should go solo in the general election without PAS, which backed Bersatu in the recent political crisis.
“Some in Umno still feel betrayed by PAS and are eager to break ties,” Azizuddin said. “But there are others, especially among the Supreme Council members, who want to work with PAS to capitalise on their strong grassroots in east coast rural areas.”
He said PAS wanted to be in bed with Bersatu through Perikatan Nasional and also with Umno through Muafakat Nasional. “It’s right in the middle but its head is tilting more towards Bersatu.”
He added that Bersatu needed PAS to strengthen its ground support while PAS needed financial assistance from Bersatu.
Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has said the party would go solo without Muafakat Nasional and Bersatu in the Melaka polls.
Another analyst, Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya, said Umno was unlikely to accept PAS after its recent betrayal.
“PAS had a choice to return to Umno during the political crisis but it decided to back Bersatu,” he said.
He also said PAS might find it easier to discuss seat allocation with Bersatu than with Umno, which might ask for additional seats in Terengganu.
“With Bersatu, it may go for big and popular seats which Umno may not agree to give it,” he said.