While Barisan Nasional has the momentum in the peninsula, they said, parties from both sides of the divide in Sabah are beset with their own issues.

Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said Warisan and Pakatan Harapan were still at odds with each other and seemed unlikely to patch things up before the upcoming general election.

Watch the video here.

“PH’s memorandum of understanding with the federal government, which Warisan opposes, is likely to last until just before GE15,” he told FMT. “PH is also less than thrilled about Warisan spreading its wings across the pond.”

Oh said although the parties were dealing with their own internal conflicts, this did not mean the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah-BN coalition would automatically profit from the fallout.

“It is also still uncertain if BN and GRS are contesting against or in collaboration with each other in GE15,” he said.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) senior lecturer Lee Kuok Tiung believed that Sabah Umno wanted to continue working with GRS, but was caught in a dilemma because its national leadership had decided not to work with Bersatu at the federal level.

Umno and Bersatu managed to work together in the Sabah elections in 2020, but the two clashed in the recent Melaka and Johor state polls, with Umno emerging the victor.

However, in a land where politics is always fluid, Romzi Ationg, another UMS academic, said any of these parties in Sabah could end up striking new pacts in GE15, even across the ideological divide.

“I don’t think there will be a clear opposition in GE15 in Sabah. It seems any party could be interested in collaborating with others for its survival.

“There is a possibility parties within the ruling government can work with some of the opposition parties. It can be Warisan with GRS or BN, or even PH with GRS,” he told FMT.

Lee said that if the opposition remained split in GE15, Warisan would have a bigger chance of securing more seats compared to other opposition parties.

He said the main reason was Warisan was a local party, while its president Shafie Apdal was considered a political warlord who had hardcore supporters.

“What more when politics in Sabah is still moving along ethnic lines,” he said.

Warisan to trade off seats with PH?

Lee said Warisan, which had spread its wings to West Malaysia, might attempt to convince PH not to contest in Sabah in GE15 by offering to sit out from contesting in the peninsula.

“They know that if they are united like in GE14, their chances of beating BN again will be very bright,” he said.

However, Oh doubted if PH would take up the offer.

“It would appear from the recent Johor state elections that Warisan has yet to make significant inroads into the peninsula, and is thus less of a worry for PH,” he said.