The two candidates from Pakatan Harapan, Suhaizan Kaiat and Nazri Abdul Rahman, will have to overcome a host of challenges if they are to be elected as the new MP and state assemblyman respectively to replace the late Salahuddin Ayub.
PH suffered a less-than-optimal outing in Simpang Jeram at the 2022 state assembly elections in March last year. Since then, there has been a decline in Indian support for PH, Umno’s pull among Malay voters has lessened, and there is a possible voter protest over Ahmad Zahid Hamidi being discharged in the Yayasan Akalbudi corruption case.
Zahid is Umno president, chairman of Barisan Nasional, and deputy prime minister in the unity coalition government.
The opposition Perikatan Nasional now looks to steal the show in Simpang Jeram, banking on a swing of votes from BN supporters.
The contest is considered an open race between Nazri, from Amanah,and Dr Mazri Yahya of PN, notwithstanding the presence of independent candidate S Jeganathan.
At the 2018 elections, “we trailed behind PH with over 2,000 votes, while BN managed to get around 6,000 votes,” said a PN leader.
The Simpang Jeram poll will also be a test of whether PH can rely on Umno members. A DAP leader who wished to remain anonymous said the 6,000 Umno members in the area are “very aligned to a particular Umno leader” who may not be in favour of the unity government.
“So we expect possible sabotage there,” said the DAP leader.
In the Pulai parliamentary seat, on the other hand, PH faces the possibility of having to face disgruntled non-Malay voters.
The turnout of non-Malay voters will be crucial for Suhaizan to retain the seat for Amanah and PH against the challenge from PN’s Zulkifli Jaafar and independent candidate Samsudin Fauzi.
Suhaizan could have expected to receive strong support from Chinese voters, who make up 40.46% of the electorate, but for the prosecution decision to discharge Zahid, bringing his corruption trial to a halt after four years.
The decision has received widespread criticism and “the Chinese just seem unhappy about the decision,” said the DAP man.
However, he said PH could win, if Indian and Chinese voters turned up to cast their ballots, as non-Malay voters are the majority.
“But we have to bear in mind that Indian votes have been swinging towards PN lately,” he said.
Pulai’s electorate comprises Malays (44.5%), Chinese (40.2%), Indian (12.2%) and 3.1% other ethnicities.
For PN, the challenge is the possibility of a lower Malay turnout, or of Umno members casting protest votes instead of supporting PN.
“We feel Pulai’s Malay voters are not going to turn up, especially Umno members. We were initially hoping that the Umno members would support us, but we feel they will send in protest votes,” said the PN leader.