Although PAS has said it will allow Bersatu to contest the seat in the Aug 17 by-election “as the seat belongs to them”, Azmi Hassan, a fellow at the National Council of Professors, said PAS will try to have Perikatan Nasional field a candidate from the party.
He said PAS will make its case based on its recent victory in the Sungai Bakap by-election; the defeat of Bersatu’s Khairul Azhari Saut in the Kuala Kubu Baharu by-election in May; and the persisting “green wave” in the east coast states.
“PAS’s insistence will create animosity and trouble within PN when it comes to choosing a candidate, making the Nenggiri by-election all about Umno versus PAS. It will not be about the PH-BN alliance or PN,” he told FMT.
Ties between Umno and PAS started to sour after the latter established PN with Bersatu in 2020 following its exit from the Muafakat Nasional alliance with Umno.
On Monday, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the party will not work with PAS as long as Abdul Hadi Awang heads the party. Zahid said he was a “living witness” to how Hadi changed his stand on their joint statements as he saw fit.
Umno is expected to decide on its candidate for the by-election this week, with a shortlist of prospective candidates prepared by former Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, the party’s by-election director.
Both Azmi and political analyst Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani predict a tight race between PN and BN for the state seat given that the constituency was an Umno stronghold for decades.
They said there is a high chance that BN will be able to overcome the marginal 810-vote majority that Azizi Abu Naim secured last year.
The Nenggiri by-election was called following the Kelantan state assembly speaker’s declaration that the seat was vacant after Azizi ceased to be a Bersatu member.
“The by-election will serve as a crucial litmus test for Umno, offering the party an opportunity to assess its popularity in the Malay heartland,” Asrul said.
He also said the pressure Zahid faced as Umno president would intensify should the BN lynchpin fail to regain the state seat.
However, Asrul said Zahid would not pull out of the PH-BN alliance on his own accord as he needed to remain deputy prime minister to solidify his standing in Umno.
Calls for Zahid to resign as Umno president have been raised on several occasions in the past, especially after BN’s dismal performance at state elections last August. BN won only 19 of the 108 seats it contested in all six states.
“Zahid lacks real power without a position in the Cabinet, making it difficult for him to suppress any revolt,” said Asrul.