Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani, of strategic advisory firm ADA Southeast Asia, said Umno, the dominant party in BN, became too focused on Malay-centric politics.
“As Umno shifted further to the right, it alienated BN’s non-Malay supporters.
“This contributed to the coalition’s weakened state and diminished the strength of Umno’s partner parties,” he told FMT, referring to MCA and MIC.
After the 2018 general election, Umno embraced a more Malay-Muslim unity narrative, especially during its Muafakat Nasional alliance with PAS.
A survey by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute backs this, showing that between 2013 and 2018, satisfaction among Chinese voters with the BN government at the time plunged to between 4% and 19%. In contrast, after PH’s 2018 win, Chinese voter satisfaction with the government surged to 88%.
The debate over BN’s partnership with PH in the unity government was reignited recently after MCA secretary-general Chong Sin Woon urged the Chinese-based party to chart its own path, citing grassroots frustration over BN’s lack of direction since GE15.
In response, Johor Umno Youth chief Noor Azleen Ambros dismissed Chong’s comments as “short-sighted”, insisting that Umno had yet to fully recover after returning to power with PH.
Johor MCA Youth chief Heng Zhi Li hit back, saying PH was “dismantling BN from within”, and warned that blind cooperation would render BN parties irrelevant.
However, International Islamic University Malaysia’s Syaza Shukri believes the real story is in MCA’s own fear of fading into irrelevance in a political landscape where Chinese voters overwhelmingly back DAP.
“If anything, the accusation that DAP and PKR are giving way to BN is more accurate, and they are doing it for the survival of this government,” she said.
She said Umno had shown signs of a rebound, citing its recent by-election performances in Pelangai, Nenggiri, Mahkota and Ayer Kuning as evidence.
“We can look at the string of by-elections. There’s still support for BN if the strategy is right,” she said.
Asrul echoed this, saying Umno’s grassroots machinery remained strong despite internal disputes.
“This enables it to remain a significant force in Malaysian politics.
“However, its partners, MIC and MCA, are unfortunately experiencing a consistent decline in popularity and need to tackle some pressing existential questions,” he said.