The analysts said Umno will need to secure a major increase in parliamentary seats at the next general election (GE16) for Zahid to realistically have a shot at the top post.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said Khairy’s remarks were made in the context of crises within other parties, including Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional, as well as tensions within the unity government with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim facing criticism.

Nevertheless, he said Zahid would only stand a chance if Umno had a massive surge in seats and regained its standing as one of the dominant parties in the arena.

“I am not saying Zahid has no chance at all, but if Umno secures 40 seats and becomes the most dominant party in the coalition, only then will Zahid have a higher possibility of being made prime minister,” he told FMT.

If GE16 were to lead to the same results as the 2022 polls, Mazlan said it would be difficult for other parties to back Zahid for the top post, especially if Pakatan Harapan remains the largest bloc.

Umno currently holds 26 parliamentary seats following the 15th general election in 2022.

Khairy, a former Umno Youth chief, recently said Zahid’s prospects of becoming the next prime minister were improving due to ongoing internal disputes in other parties and Umno’s perceived stability.

Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Zahid would need the support of a majority of MPs in the Dewan Rakyat, something that is difficult to achieve since Umno is no longer as dominant as before.

He said PAS remained the only stable Malay-Muslim party, while Umno continued to grapple with negative voter perceptions.

Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said it was “not impossible” for Zahid to become the next prime minister, but this depended on the dynamics of a hung Parliament and post-election negotiations.

“Without a major surge in seats, those chances will still depend on political negotiations,” he said.