Expelled two weeks ago, the former Bersatu deputy president claims to command the support of 18 MPs, comprising five others who were also sacked and 13 who remain in the party.
He is reported to be exploring the takeover of a small party ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).
However, Syaza Shukri of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) said the 13 remaining Bersatu MPs are “effectively constrained” from joining Hamzah’s proposed new outfit by a provision in the Federal Constitution.
Article 49A – commonly referred to as the anti-hopping law – states that any MP who resigns or ceases to be member of a party, or having been elected as a member of one party, joins another, automatically loses their seat.
However, no vacancy arises if the member is expelled by the party.
“Those who have not been expelled cannot simply resign and join Hamzah’s new party without triggering by-elections and risking their careers.
“This gives Muhyiddin leverage because he can effectively ‘contain’ these MPs within Bersatu even if their loyalties have shifted,” she told FMT.
Hamzah and several others were sacked from Bersatu earlier this month amid a leadership tussle with Muhyiddin. He later declared war on Muhyiddin, describing himself as the former prime minister’s “number one enemy”.
Syaza said “strategic ambiguity” – formally remaining in Bersatu while signalling political alignment with Hamzah – may be the better short-term option for those 13 MPs.
“This allows them to avoid triggering the anti-hopping law while keeping their future options open,” she added.
She suggested that Hamzah’s influence remains largely political for now, with Muhyiddin still holding the upper hand institutionally.
“Until that support translates into MPs who can legally join him, Hamzah’s ability to reshape the opposition bloc remains limited.”
Azmil Tayeb from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) said forming a new party would be challenging not only because of the anti-hopping law, but also due to Malaysia’s current electoral dynamics.
He said while the anti-hopping law prevents Bersatu MPs from joining him, a new party is unlikely to fare well in Malaysia’s electoral system that heavily favours two big coalitions.
“A new Malay party would only make the field more crowded, and the competition for Malay votes much harder,” he said, adding that Hamzah and other dissenting Bersatu leaders might ultimately have better electoral prospects if they joined Umno rather than attempt to build a party from scratch.
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said Muhyiddin’s position remains precarious despite his perceived institutional advantage.
“Muhyiddin only has the support of six MPs compared with Hamzah’s 18,” he said, adding that Bersatu members aligned with Hamzah will continue to be a dilemma for Muhyiddin.
Mazlan said their loyalty to Hamzah’s political movement means their actions could complicate matters for both Muhyiddin and Bersatu.