Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University of Malaysia said Amanah may be in a position to demand for more seats, especially those currently held by Bersatu, should Pakatan Harapan decide to go solo at GE16.

“(However) if Umno were to work with PH, Umno would most likely contest Bersatu’s seats, which makes sense given their overlapping voter base.

“So, it would be quite difficult for Amanah to increase its share from two (existing) seats,” he told FMT.

Penang Umno last month pledged to work closely with its unity government partner, PH, in the coming elections, assuring its ally of full commitment to the existing pact.

Amanah secretary-general Faiz Fadzil announced the party’s Penang GE16 target on Saturday, adding that seat allocations would be negotiated within the unity coalition with the aim of achieving a “clean sweep.”

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University said Amanah may secure fewer seats than it is targeting if PH cooperates with BN in GE16.

“However, if PH and BN were to clash, then PKR would have to cede some seats to Amanah,” he said.

Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said Amanah’s failure to capture the Kepala Batas and Tasek Gelugor parliamentary seats in GE15, and to retain the Permatang Pasir state seat in the 2023 state elections, reflects its inability to gain traction among the Malay grassroots.

He also said Umno and PKR were both eyeing the limited number of Malay-majority seats in Penang, thus creating a dilemma for Amanah.

“If Amanah demands too much, it could jeopardise ties between PH and BN. But if it gives in too much, it will remain as a minor player.

“Amanah might have to compromise, especially in strategic seats that Umno considers traditional areas, and with PKR in ‘reformasi areas’,” he added.

However, Awang Azman said Amanah could still opt for marginal seats or those in the “semi-urban Malay belt” to boost its seat share.

Challenge in wooing Malay voters

Both Lau and Awang Azman questioned whether Amanah can win over Malay voters, especially in the Malay heartlands, with PAS and Perikatan Nasional entrenched there.

The 2023 state election saw PN wrest 11 Malay-majority seats from Umno and PH, with PAS winning seven seats and Bersatu four.

Awang Azman said Malay voters in Penang tend to be sceptical of parties perceived as too “urban-liberal” and lacking firmness on identity-based issues. He added that PAS still has the advantage of  consistency and a clear religious identity at the grassroots level.

Lau warned that Amanah may face challenges winning over non-Malay voters, especially members of the Chinese community, who are growing increasingly frustrated with the federal government and PH.

“Maintaining the core support of non-Malays is already not easy. What more expanding it to the Malay (areas). That would be even harder,” he added.

Wong said Amanah cannot swing Malay votes on its own and would have to rely on the Madani government and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s clout to improve its chances.

However, both Wong and Awang Azman said that fielding locally grounded, high-calibre candidates could improve Amanah’s prospects in Penang for GE16.