Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said Umno’s attempt to frame its stance as a defence of customs and the royal institution might not be seen that way by voters.
He said the issue could become a “double-edged sword”, with Barisan Nasional (BN) at risk of being punished if voters believe that the party is using the royal crisis to gain political power, especially to seize the menteri besar post.
“If it happens, Umno-BN may be seen as digging its own grave, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) can use the narrative that Umno is betraying the people’s mandate and exploiting the royal institution.
“Perikatan Nasional (PN) has the opportunity to come in as a ‘cleaner’ alternative if the PH-BN split continues,” he told FMT.
Negeri Sembilan Umno chief Jalaluddin Alias said on Saturday that the party would rather be in the opposition than remain aligned with PH in the state administration.
His statement came days after Umno’s political bureau decided that the party would continue supporting the unity government in Negeri Sembilan, while respecting the decision of 14 assemblymen who withdrew support for menteri besar Aminuddin Harun.
The assemblymen said they withdrew support because Aminuddin had failed to properly handle an ongoing crisis involving four chieftains seeking to remove Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir as Negeri Sembilan Yang di-Pertuan Besar.
On Sunday, Umno secretary-general Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said the crisis would be discussed at a unity government leadership council meeting this week.
In the 2023 state election, BN won 14 seats while PH won 17. The two coalitions later worked together to form the Negeri Sembilan government with a comfortable majority.
Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia also described Negeri Sembilan Umno’s move as risky, especially since BN won its 14 seats while cooperating with PH.
He said Umno might struggle to keep its position in the event of a three-cornered fight in the 16th general election (GE16).
“I believe Umno cannot win in Negeri Sembilan if there is a three-cornered fight,” he said, adding that Umno now faced the perception that it simply wanted to seize power.
However, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said Negeri Sembilan Umno’s stand did not necessarily go against the central leadership’s decision to continue working with PH until GE16.
He said the Negeri Sembilan issue was unique as it involved state customs, and that the Umno state chapter might want to demonstrate the principled position that the menteri besar should remain neutral in disputes involving customary institutions.
Azmi said that unlike Johor and Melaka, where Umno was more dominant, the balance of power between BN and PH in Negeri Sembilan was almost equal.
“In this case, whether Umno suffers negative consequences depends on Negeri Sembilan voters.
“What Jalaluddin stated is a stance and principle in support of the customary constitution in Negeri Sembilan. Whether it is read positively or negatively depends on the voters,” he said.