Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said tensions between the two sides clearly remained despite Barisan Nasional’s (BN) vow to continue backing the PH-led government in Negeri Sembilan.
He told FMT that these tensions risked escalating into prolonged public spats and blatant attacks against one another.
In the context of the next general election (GE16) or Negeri Sembilan state election, this could lead to three-cornered fights between PH, BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN), he said.
“That would be a free-for-all, with all parties contesting against one another. They’d be enemies first, friends later after the elections are over.
“As it currently stands, it would be hard for PH and BN to find common ground in Negeri Sembilan,” said Mazlan.
Last week, Negeri Sembilan BN’s 14 assemblymen triggered a political crisis by withdrawing support for menteri besar Aminuddin Harun and claiming to have the numbers to form a new state government with the backing of PN’s five assemblymen.
A simple majority of 19 seats is needed to form the state government in the 36-member Negeri Sembilan assembly. PH has 17 seats.
PH and BN formed the government in Negeri Sembilan after the 2023 state election with 31 seats collectively.
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Mazlan said the crisis in the state was unlikely to spill over to other states or affect ties between the BN and PH central leaderships.
He said the unity alliance partners could use a hybrid formula whereby they cooperate and avoid overlaps in certain seats, but clash in a handful of other constituencies.
However, Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan said the tensions in Negeri Sembilan had essentially given BN the justification it needed to go solo in future elections, including GE16 and upcoming state polls.
Azmi said this would be particularly beneficial for BN in the Johor and Melaka state elections, since the grand old coalition already holds two-thirds majorities in both state assemblies.
He said going into these state elections in an alliance with PH would likely see BN forced to give up some seats to its electoral partner.
“In Negeri Sembilan, both blocs look rather balanced, allowing for a close fight and making seat negotiations harder,” he added.