PAS’ dream that its candidate would win big in the Port Dickson by-election on Oct 13 did not come true. Former army man Mohd Nazari Mokhtar only managed to obtain 7,456 votes. Independent candidate Isa Samad, who quit Umno to contest, came in third with 4,230 votes. Isa, however, was generally perceived by Barisan Nasional (BN) voters as an “Umno proxy” contesting in the by-election.
The combined votes obtained by Nazari and Isa could not match the votes polled by the Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate, who garnered 31,016 votes. In other words, voters rejected both PAS and, indirectly, Umno/BN.
PH candidate Anwar Ibrahim won 72% of the total 43,489 votes, which translates to a bigger majority of 23,560 than the 17,710 obtained by his predecessor. This was despite a 59% voter turnout of the 75,770 registered voters – a relatively low rate compared to the 84% in the May 9 general election, but higher than the other three by-elections this year, all of which recorded turnout rates of below 50%.
The voter turnout could be due to voter fatigue, or it could be that voters working outstation did not return to vote. But it was not that many voters decided to boycott the by-election as implied by some PAS leaders.
PAS’ candidate and the Malay vote
The results showed favourable support from all ethnic groups for Anwar. The 75,770 registered voters were not dominated by any particular ethnic group – Malays represented 43%, Chinese 33%, Indians 22% and other groups 2%. In other words, a mixed constituency favours the multiracial PH, not the religion-based PAS or race-based Umno. PAS, for that matter, has yet to make a breakthrough in any mixed constituency.
The results also showed that PAS’ candidate could not even garner a significant number of Malay votes. Meanwhile Isa, despite being a local boy and quite an influential figure in the constituency, could not get enough support from Umno/BN members to save his election deposit.
PH’s candidate securing a 23,560 majority over his PAS competitor who polled only 7,456 votes has again made a dent in the Islamist party’s ego. PAS also lost to PH in the earlier Seri Setia by-election, while Umno lost the Sungai Kandis by-election to PH. Again, voters seem to have rejected both PAS and Umno. Given the party’s relatively poor performance, PAS leaders have resorted to scapegoating to make their followers feel good. This time it was the low voter turnout that received the blame.
The voter turnout was 59%, and the PAS leader came up with the lame excuse that the PH government “has dropped in popularity”.
Although Umno did not officially contest in the by-election, Isa was seen by voters as an Umno proxy. PAS, on the other hand, was expecting Umno members to support its candidate. This failed when Isa decided to contest. The outcome was that both candidates lost to Anwar. The Malay votes were split among at least three candidates, but the majority went to the charismatic PH candidate.
Malays have warmed up to PH
The PH candidate managed to secure Malay votes at all polling stations, showing that the Malays have warmed up to PH. PAS’ strategy of parachuting an ex-army man from Johor to contest in Port Dickson, expecting to garner army votes there as well, backfired. Early voters from among the police and military personnel gave their support to the PH candidate who is expected to become the eighth prime minister.
Despite fielding a former army man in Port Dickson which has an army base, PAS only managed to improve slightly on its GE14 haul of 6,594 votes in the seat – an addition of only 862 votes. Minus about 2,000 votes, PAS’ candidate would have lost his election deposit.
PAS was on the wrong footing again. Conventionally, the party was never really taken seriously by voters in the constituency. Expecting that Umno would not contest, PAS put up a candidate only to have its plans spoilt by Isa, who stood as an independent. PAS also failed to attract the non-Malay voters with its politics of religion. But surprisingly, Isa too could not garner enough support from Umno/BN supporters.
PAS, despite being the defender of Islam and Malay interests, did not gain more votes even when Umno did not officially endorse Isa as its candidate for the by-election. It was the Anwar factor that pulled voters to PH. Anwar’s victory and his entry into the PH political fold as a member of Parliament and future prime minister will further erode support for PAS and Umno in future elections.
PAS expected Umno members to support its candidate
PAS and Umno leaders are generally seen by voters as being very close to each other, but this was not reflected at the grassroots level. Umno in fact became a weak party after the last general election. Prior to that, Umno and PAS were at each other for 60 years. It was only towards the last general election that both parties came to some sort of understanding on cooperation.
PAS expected Umno voters to help its candidate win in the by-election in Port Dickson, but this did not materialise. Neither could PAS woo the non-Malay voters. PAS has made it very clear that it will not work with DAP which is a component party under PH. But PAS’ brand of politics using religion as a tool has also shooed away the urban Malay voters. Failing to convince the urban Malays and the non-Malay voters, PAS’ candidate had only a narrow cohort of voters to support the party in the Port Dickson by-election.
PAS in fact cannot win in any mixed constituency as the party will not get support from non-Malays. As for the Malay votes, they are split among a few parties: PPBM, Amanah, PKR, Umno, DAP and PAS. In the opposition, Malay votes are again split between Umno and PAS. This has become a political gloom for PAS.
PAS leaders have also confused the voters with many contradicting statements. They denounce PH leaders in most of their speeches but seem to be quiet when it involves Umno leaders who of late have been hauled to court on corruption charges. They vouch for clean governance based on religion but there’s no word of praise for PH which is striving to clean up the country’s corrupt image left behind by the former regime. The grassroots are not happy with this ambivalent stand by PAS, and the voters are right to be very suspicious of the party.
The grassroots are not sure if PAS is truly an Islamist party as it seems unwilling to combat corruption. Some of PAS’ grassroots members are even frustrated with their president’s stand and the party’s flip-flop in political direction. To the grassroots, it sounds strange that their leaders are still in support of Umno but not PH.
PAS’ political dilemma
There is a noticeable split in PAS, with many of their supporters leaving the party and joining Amanah. In fact, all three of their past presidents’ sons have left to join Amanah. This is a big loss for PAS and has influenced more voters to reject the party. PAS working with Umno may further displease the grassroots in both parties.
PAS cannot be over-confident anymore, even when contesting in Malay-majority constituencies. With PH well entrenched at the federal level, augmented by Anwar’s big win in Port Dickson, more Malays will now switch sides. Many will abandon PAS and Umno. And with PAS and Umno in tatters, more Malay grassroots will be confused. For PAS to continue courting Umno would be a big blooper for both parties. The grassroots will abandon them both, which was what happened in the Sungai Kandis, Seri Setia and Port Dickson by-elections.
To go it alone, as it did in Port Dickson, will not favour PAS either. PAS now faces a political dilemma: to court or not to court Umno, and how to win in mixed constituencies in future elections.
Moaz Nair is an FMT reader.
The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.