If any other politician had done what Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin did to his deputy, Hamzah Zainudin (who was expelled from Bersatu on Friday), I would have called it a risky move at best and a stupid one at worst.
It was a risky move when Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s spat with his deputy Musa Hitam was to lead to the great Umno schism and the formation of Semangat 46 by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Then Mahathir took out Anwar Ibrahim – but he was at the height of his power when he did so. It took 20 years for that move to bite Umno in the behind. That was a worthy political move.
The question here is: will Muhyiddin’s action backfire on him? I have written several articles heaping praise on Muhyiddin as a great politician and tactician due to his years as a political player to be reckoned with.
Now comes the acid test. Defeating PAS, a humongous party, was easy, as it is filled with arrogance and confidence that everything it does is loved by God. But now Muhyiddin may have met his match in Hamzah, who countered with a significant salvo after his ousting to which I am still wondering how Muhyiddin will respond.
Firing the few MPs who supported Hamzah was a calculable move. But to see most of Bersatu’s MPs appearing at Hamzah’s “reset” gathering is another matter.
Bersatu secretary-general Azmin Ali warned of severe repercussions for anyone seen at any gathering held by Hamzah, but can Azmin and Muhyiddin survive with only a handful of MPs on their side?
When Mahathir and Musa fell out, not many MPs rebelled and hardly any supported Anwar’s exit from Umno. But this is the first time I have seen a president of a political party with only a quarter of his MPs seen as being loyal to him. What are Muhyiddin and Azmin going to do and how will this battle pan out for PAS?
First we must ask: was it really necessary to sack Hamzah at this time? In politics, the two crucial things are what to do and when to do it. In other words, action and timing.
I do not really see that Muhyiddin had any choice. Hamzah defied the disciplinary committee’s summons not once, but twice. He was seen as directly questioning Muhyiddin in a press interview.
Rafizi and Hamzah
When Rafizi criticises Anwar openly, he is only seen as a jilted whinger. But when Hamzah criticises Muhyiddin, he is seen as a rival.
Rafizi is not favoured by Umno, Gabungan Parti Sarawak or any other party. He is basically alone with his podcast and press briefings. But Hamzah has the backing of the powerful PAS.
Muhyiddin’s sacking of his number two can be seen as exerting his political power against the might of PAS, Ikatan Prihatin Rakyat (IPR) and Bersatu members. That was necessary, as prolonging the situation would weaken Muhyiddin more and more.
Rafizi can whinge all he wants, as Anwar will not do anything that might increase Rafizi’s popularity, such as sacking the great bellyacher.
KJ the intelligent choice
By contrast, Khairy Jamaluddin is a more intelligent politician, as he reinvented himself after his ouster into something no one could imagine: a credible politician popular with the mainstream in multicultural Malaysia, especially among the young. Khairy is not a whinger, kudos to him.
He could be with PKR or Umno at the next general election (GE16), if he chooses. If PKR is smart, it would do well to replace the whingeing Rafizi with the charismatic Khairy, place him as an elected Supreme Council member and assure him a safe seat for GE16.
If Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi does not roll out the red carpet for Khairy, PKR should do so.
What next for Hamzah?
Back to Hamzah. Will PAS abandon Hamzah, now that he is partyless?
Muhyiddin may seem weak with only a handful of MPs, but he also has the support of Gerakan, MIPP and IPR, with strong people like Urimai chairman P Ramasamy to lead the charge. If Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman returns to Bersatu, whether through Muda or other means, Bersatu would be unstoppable.
PAS would then abandon Hamzah and embrace Muhyiddin and Bersatu.
Hamzah says he will build a new house. Will he take on another unpopular registered party and give it a makeover? I do not think Hamzah and his Bersatu MPs will ever join Umno or PAS. Neither PAS nor Umno will roll out the red carpet for traitors and has-beens.
It is doubtful that any of them would get seats from the larger parties. So, Hamzah must have his own party and place all his MPs in leadership positions to show PAS that they are ready to replace Muhyiddin and Bersatu.
No more a PAS puppet PM
But why would PAS want any more Malay influence when it thinks that it has enough? What PAS wants is a credible partner who can attract the non-Malays and beat Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) multicultural image.
Maybe Hamzah’s party can attract MIC and MCA as partners, and that would be an alternative that PAS would consider. Will MCA and MIC risk their grassroots support to be seen as rooting for an extremist political party? I am sure DAP will be the happiest if MCA and MIC does that. It would be an easy win for PH and Barisan Nasional (BN).
So, even without the support of so many MPs, Muhyiddin is still standing strong. Perhaps Hamzah needs to go to the ground and borrow Rafizi’s lorries and trucks to canvas support among the grassroots, like Anwar did during the Reformasi years.
Finally, although Hamzah looks strong with his slogan “I am your number one enemy”, Muhyiddin would do well to ignore him and work on IPR. Even with the strength of the number of MPs supporting him, Hamzah needs to reinvent himself from a sleek and shrewd political operator to a leader in his own right.
His path to becoming a puppet prime minister for PAS has been destroyed by Muhyiddin and Azmin. Does Hamzah still have the mettle to be the real PM for Malaysia, or is he just another political moaner on YouTube?
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.