MIC’s dithering over whether to commit to Perikatan Nasional, while PN pushes its line that MIC is already a member of the opposition coalition, puts the focus squarely on whether the Indian-based party continues to hold relevance in national politics.
Party leaders are aware that PN’s fervent efforts at wooing MIC stem out of the opposition coalition’s hope of broadening its appeal to non-Malay voters, and not out of passion.
For now, the party has declared it will remain with Barisan Nasional, sticking to its short-term interests which are the state elections in Malacca and Johor, widely expected to be held before the next general election in two years.
At stake for MIC are its precarious hold of six legislative seats: three in Johor and one in Melaka as well as one seat in Pahang, and the sole parliamentary constituency of Tapah, Perak, won in the 2022 general election (GE15).
Given that BN formed an alliance with Pakatan Harapan after GE15, one source said “there is no chance DAP, PKR and Amanah will be generous enough to allow MIC to contest any of the seats that they won from MIC”. The two coalitions were rivals then, and contested against each other.
“In the present circumstances those parties will be hard-pressed as well to try and retain their seats at the coming elections,” the source says.
Melaka will hold its state election this year, as confirmed by chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh while the Johor election is not expected to be held early as the current government’s term ends only in April 2027.
A look at the voting trend at the previous elections shows that MIC won mainly on the strength of BN’s Malay vote bank and its strong machinery. If MIC is to have any change at retaining those seats, the party will again be forced to depend largely on BN and its machinery, even if BN may have suffered some erosion of Malay support as some believe.
Too much of a risk
For MIC to suddenly switch to PN now will be too risky a move, robbing the party of support from its traditional Indian voter base and from the BN’s Chinese and Malay supporters.
“Many leaders at division levels have expressed their discomfort if they are forced to work with PAS during any future election. BN is MIC’s comfort zone at the moment. That’s why a majority of the CEC members felt remaining in the coalition is the best option for now.
“Despite the flaws of the Madani government in the way it has handled controversial issues, especially the contentious temple debate, Indian voters are not expected to drop BN or PH in droves for a PAS-led PN,” another source said.
The recent “takeover” of PN by PAS leaders in a questionable manner has also made MIC jittery.
The recent controversy over so-called “illegal” temples saw some PAS leaders openly supporting the campaign, with one PAS rising star, information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari making an open statement encouraging members to take part in the protest gathering.
Taking into account the hardline PAS has taken on religious rights in the past, some non-Muslims have been privately saying, rightly or wrongly, that PAS may resort to amending the Federal Constitution to curtail certain rights if it obtains a parliamentary majority one day.
This may not be wholly true but it’s the perception, unfortunately.
Such fears among non-Malay voters would make it a strong possibility that MIC will be annihilated in Johor and Malacca if the party stands under the PN flag. That was apparently the main consideration when the MIC central working committee took a step back from committing to PN, saying it is studying the sentiments of the Indian community on the recent PAS “takeover” of PN.
For PAS, however, its hopes of an association with MIC stems from the possibility of using the party to further make inroads in Johor, where Indian voters form an estimated 16% of the electorate. Its pact with MIC in Johor and Malacca could become a yardstick to draw up strategies for the next general election, and for the future.
This looks to be the only reason for PN’s ultimatum for MIC to make an official decision as soon as possible — the hope that pulling away MIC will weaken PH and BN in one way or the other.
It’s obviously not out of love for MIC but just another step in the PN/PAS journey to eventually capturing federal power.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.