Going by past elections, Pakatan Harapan (PH) has enjoyed the support of a majority of the Chinese and Indian voters, but murmurs on the ground hint that it may not necessarily be the case this time around.

While there is little doubt that PH, and in particular DAP, will retain the seats where non-Malays form the majority, the former ruling coalition may see a drop in support in Malay-majority areas.

A total of 23 of the 28 state seats up for grabs on Saturday are Malay-majority constituencies, an area considered to be PH’s Achilles’ heel in GE14 when it was at the height of its popularity, with former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad leading the coalition.

Three years on, Mahathir, synonymous with the Malay agenda, is no longer part of PH, and the responsibility for the coalition’s push in Melaka’s Malay-majority areas has now fallen on PKR and Amanah, which have come under fire from PH supporters over their acceptance of former Umno defectors Idris Haron and Nor Azman Hassan.

This, coupled with the expected low voter turnout because of the pandemic, political fatigue and fears over PAS’ attitude – as reflected in its push to ban 4D shops and curb the sale of alcohol in Kedah – could see a repeat of the Tanjung Piai by-election result.

In the by-election for that Malay-majority seat, Chinese voters swung towards BN’s Wee Jeck Seng over his PH rivals.

“The battle for Melaka’s Malay-majority seats is down to BN and PN. It’s Umno against Bersatu and PAS. PKR and Amanah, in particular, are not considered serious contenders,” one political observer told FMT.

The observer, who asked not to be named, said the reality was that without Malay support, PH could not hope to wrest control of the state as it did in 2018.

“In Melaka, even in Malay-majority seats, there are a significant number of non-Malay voters. They could vote for PH though it won’t be enough to win.”

The observer said there were, however, rumblings within the Chinese community, especially in Malay-majority areas, that indicated they could “use” BN to punish Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional over PAS’ “extreme” policies.

“They (non-Malays) could do what they did in Tanjung Piai (by picking BN over Bersatu and PH) and send a strong signal to those in power that PAS and its extreme policies aren’t welcome in Melaka.”

Melaka is set to go to the polls on Saturday.