Yesterday, Johor’s Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar signed the notice to dissolve the state assembly after granting an audience to menteri besar Hasni Mohammad, paving the way for the elections to be held sometime before March 23.

Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said he expected a big win for Umno owing not only to the party’s strength but also the weakness of rivals like Bersatu, PKR, DAP and PAS.

“The party that will lose most critically in Johor will be Bersatu,” he told FMT.

“They face an uphill battle if they go against Umno, which seems likely.

“Their chairman (Muhyiddin Yassin) may be from Johor, but the party is not synonymous with the state the way Umno is.”

Azmi said the outcome of the elections could have big ramifications on Bersatu’s strategy heading into the next general election.

“It will dictate their future: will they enter GE15 alone, will they stay in Perikatan Nasional (PN) with PAS, or will they disband that coalition and join forces with Umno?”

Oh Ei Sun, of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, agreed that Umno would enter the elections as favourites, and said it is “very likely” to secure a majority much healthier than the one-seat lead the state government held prior to the dissolution.

Other major parties are likely to run into issues that will hamper their prospects, he said.

“Bersatu will have to derive most of its electoral support from PAS, because although Muhyiddin is from Johor, his Malay grassroots supporters remain mostly with Umno.

“The strong support from non-Malays that the party enjoyed in 2018 is absent. It will be difficult for it to replicate those formidable results.

“As for Pakatan Harapan, after the signing of the MoU (with the federal government), the coalition is suffering from a trust deficit among supporters.

“Many of them may prefer to stay home, like they did in the Melaka and Sarawak polls.”