In Pagoh, where Perikatan Nasional chairman Muhyiddin Yassin is seeking a ninth term, there appears to be strong support for the former prime minister with his ceramahs well attended by Malay and Chinese voters.
In Muar, its former MP, Muda president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, may struggle to defend his seat with it being considered an open race between him, PN’s Abdullah Husin and Barisan Nasional’s Helmy Abd Latif.
Some of the voters in the area who spoke to FMT said they do not want MPs who are only active on social media.
In Ledang and Bakri, a split in the Malay votes will likely benefit PH because of the sizeable number of non-Malays in these areas.
Former Ledang MP Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh will be defending the seat for PH in a six-cornered contest. In Bakri, PH’s Tan Hong Pin will go up against three other candidates.
Tan has said the battle for Bakri will be tougher for PH this time around as there is no anti-BN wave, unlike in 2018.
In Simpang Renggam, seen as the hottest battlefield in Johor, question marks remain over who will win the seat where former education minister Maszlee Malik of PH is taking on BN’s Hasni Mohammad as well as candidates from PN and Pejuang.
Maszlee appears to be favoured by the Chinese voters, while Hasni is popular among the Malays, though the community’s vote could be split among BN, PN and Pejuang.
In the south of Johor, five urban seats – Kulai, Pulai, Tebrau, Iskandar Puteri and Johor Bahru – are likely to remain under PH, while support for BN in Pontian, Ayer Hitam, Kota Tinggi, Tenggara and Tanjung Piai is growing.
However, a key determinant in Johor will be voter turnout.
Universiti Teknologi Mara political analyst Noor Nirwandy Mat Noordin said a low to moderate voter turnout will benefit BN, while a higher turnout will open up space for PH and PN.
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said PH will likely dominate the mixed seats, especially with borders reopened, but will struggle in the Malay-majority seats.
PH’s challenge, he said, was convincing voters that it could govern.