Ilham Centre research chief Yusri Ibrahim said the think tank’s field findings during the August 2023 state polls showed that BN’s victories were largely aided by PH’s core supporters transferring their votes to BN candidates.

However, he said the reverse did not occur as effectively, with BN voters less inclined to back PH candidates.

“In other words, PH-to-BN vote transferability worked well, but not the other way around,” he said in a Facebook post.

Yusri said PH voters played a key role in helping BN win a large number of seats, including Sungai Lui, Palong, Jeram Padang, Lenggeng, Juaseh, Seri Menanti, Senaling, and Kota.

He added that these seats were secured by slim margins, ranging from a few dozen to a few hundred votes.

“Based on our simulations at the time, without support from PH’s core voters, it would have been quite difficult for Umno-BN to win those seats,” he said.

In the 2023 state polls, the PH-BN alliance won 31 of the 36 seats in the Negeri Sembilan state assembly. PH took 17 seats, BN took 14, and Perikatan Nasional won the remaining five.

Yusri said there had yet to be a fresh field study to determine whether BN in Negeri Sembilan is now stronger than it was in August 2023.

However, he said analysis following the recent political crisis suggested that public perception of BN in the state was “somewhat less favourable”.

“It will not be easy for Umno-BN if a state election is held in the near future,” he said.

Negeri Sembilan was plunged into a political crisis after the 14 Umno assemblymen withdrew support for menteri besar Aminuddin Harun from PKR, raising questions over the state government’s majority.

Earlier today, DAP instructed its party machinery to be on standby for the possibility of snap elections in Negeri Sembilan, Melaka, and Johor in the event that their state assemblies are dissolved soon.