Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has played this card before. In May 2008, he quit Umno in protest against his appointed successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, after Barisan Nasional had lost its customary supermajority in Parliament and ceded a number of states to the nascent opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat. Mahathir attributed the loss to the weakness of Abdullah’s leadership.

Yesterday’s resignation could be his last card, his most powerful statement to the legions of supporters who still adore him. This time Mahathir has quit in protest against not only Prime Minister Najib Razak, but against Umno and the protectionist policies it has put in place around Najib, who is the party’s president.

This time, the statement is simply this: Umno is no longer Umno and its only cause is the protection of its president.

There aren’t too many out there who will argue with him on that point. In fact, one suspects that many grassroots party members will follow him or, at least, wish to do so in their hearts. Mahathir knows that his exit from Umno will send a wave through the party and indeed the Malay community itself. It may be the final confirmation for many that there is indeed no saving the party from itself.

But where does Mahathir go from here? He has two choices. The first is to lead the diaspora of discontents and rally them in a movement, either to influence the next election or to continually pressure Najib to step down. But such a movement will eventually disperse because Najib has shown an uncanny patience to wait till the most favourable time to strike. He will let the anger fizzle out as people realise that their obligations to work, family, friends, et cetera, are still there waiting regardless of the politics of the time.

The second option is far more interesting. The uniting of the diaspora could result in Mahathir becoming the patron or founder of a new party composed of the centre-right and the moderates, absorbing other anti-Najib champions like Muyhiddin Yassin and Zaid Ibrahim. Provided that this new party has viable policies, it could gather wide support, further muddying the waters and forcing a rethink of Malaysia’s power structure.

As it stands, the current opposition has nearly broken down, with PKR and DAP at each other’s throats in Penang and Sarawak, and PAS spoiling for a fight over the Malay vote with Amanah. The current situation is untenable, and it is almost certain that Barisan Nasional will win given the chaotic state of the opposition.

The appearance of a third and more viable choice could actually be the greatest chance at a change of the status quo, and a chance to force Umno to rethink its approach to ensure electability.

With some Umno rebels already predicting that a quarter of Umno’s membership will defect, the possibility of a new party doesn’t sound that far-fetched, if indeed nearly a million members defect from Umno. However, this latest move of Mahathir’s could end up as nothing if he does not act or if too few are on his side. Perhaps we’ll have to wait until the March 27 meeting-of-minds to get a clearer idea of what may happen.